How Golf Betting Can (Sometimes) Offer Big Value
Data is useful in sports betting; we all know that. It might not tell us everything we need to know about a single event, but it can lead us to make informed choices. Take, for instance, that in horse racing, it is generally well-known that the favorite wins around 35% of the time. It varies by discipline and region, but that’s an approximate global average gained over decades of data. This varies by sport, too. So, for instance, a favorite in an NBA game tends to win about 63% of the time.
In golf, particularly the Majors, it is a different story altogether. Again, the data varies by tournament, but you can take it that the favorite rarely wins. In the Masters, for example, there was a 19-year gap between Scottie Scheffler’s win as favorite in 2024 and Tiger Woods’ win (the last favorite to win before Scheffler) in 2005. Masters golf tournament betting lines are, thus, not kind to the market leaders overall, but they can throw up some insane value.
The reasoning behind this is not difficult to parse out. Golf Majors have large fields – often over 100 players – and that adds a bit of chaos to the action, and to the betting. A similar story is told for horse racing: The favorite wins less often in large fields – say the Melbourne Cup or UK Grand National – than it does in small fields. In probability terms, you are basically adding more variables to the equation.
Golf betting can offer great value
Yet, in saying that, golf bettors can get some good value. It’s not always easy – that’s sports betting – but there is an art to it. For example, place betting is a highly common golf betting strategy. That basically means wagering on a golfer to finish among the top players – could be top 6, top 8, or even top 10, depending on the sportsbook. The art comes from finding players with the consistency to finish in those positions, while also finding a little bit of value in the odds.
As an example, consider Brooks Koepka, whose Major record in 2019 was 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 4th. Incredible consistency, and one that would have rewarded bettors handsomely for backing the American to finish among the places. Some bettors will use each-way betting, backing the player both to win and finish in the places, which would have paid after Koepka won the 2019 PGA Championship. Kopeka also had a decent 2021, finishing in the top 6 of three of the Majors.
Golf Major winners at massive prices are also more common than in the majority of other sports. A case in point was Phil Mickelson’s triumph at the 2021 PGA Championship. Mickelson had won several Majors by that point, but he was considered well past his prime, so his win was seen as a massive shock. Odds of 150/1 were offered – 200/1 with some sportsbooks – for the American to roll back the years and win. Other recent Major winners at huge prices include Brian Harman at the 2023 Open (125/1) and Wyndham Clark at the 2023 US Open (70/1).
Players can be suited to different courses
While big prices are not uncommon, the difficulty is, of course, picking out the player who actually defies the odds, which is easier said than done. For that, you need to look at different factors, ranging from form going into the tournament to previous performances on the course. And don’t forget, every golf course is different: Some British and Irish links courses can feel like a completely different discipline to those with wide fairways in North America, for example. Some players thrive on links; some don’t.
In the end, golf is like other sports: shocks happen, but the cream mostly rises to the top. Yet, there are specific outliers that mean sports bettors can – at times – pinpoint an extra bit of value. The main thing to remember is that big odds shouldn’t put you off, as time and time again, we’ve seen 100/1 winners of the world’s most prestigious golf tournaments.