RTP Vs. Variance: Which Is More Important for Casino Players?

In the 1990s, when the first online casino software was developed, the stated goal of iGaming providers was to mimic the real-world aspects of casino games. Thus, online blackjack games would reflect the real-world probability of playing in a Las Vegas casino. The same rule applies to games like roulette and baccarat. The technical term for this was RTP – Return to Player – basically, it tells you how much the game is expected to pay back over time; it’s like house edge in reverse.

While RTP for games like European roulette is consistent at 97.3% (reflecting the odds in real-world European roulette), slot games can vary significantly when it comes to RTP, anything from 90% to 98%. Most slots average about 95% RTP, but the overall range means that some players search for high RTP slots, following the logic that a 98% RTP game is more generous than one with 90% RTP. The information on RTP is readily available on online casino platforms, usually in the individual rules section of each game.

RTP is based on long-term calculations

Yet, do those players put too much stock in RTP? Indeed, their logic is sound overall, but other factors must be considered. For a start, it’s worth calculating how that metric is calculated – over millions of spins – it does not mean you are guaranteed to make back 98% of your money over a more extended session. It is simply a calculation over many plays, so it means very little to your session.

Indeed, you can argue that variance is a more important metric than RTP. Variance, which is sometimes known as volatility, is not measurable in numbers. Instead, it is the behavior of specific slots. A low-variance game will be a steadier option, consistently paying small wins. As the name suggests, a high-variance game is more volatile and can drop explosive wins but deliver winning spins less frequently. Understanding variance will tell you more about expected payback rates in a single session than RTP.

Providers promote their variance metrics.

Interestingly, slot providers have begun to showcase variance/volatility in their games. Some, like Pragmatic Play and Nolimit City, use it as a marketing tactic, with slogans like Warning: Extreme Volatility. Others, like NetEnt, have built it into their game branding, such as Starburst Xtreme. Indeed, we can point to games like NetEnt’s Secret of the Stones, which allows players to play different versions of the game’s volatility by selecting the Extreme option.

Of course, knowing the volatility does not automatically tell you if you will win or lose. It simply informs you of how the slot game behaves and its personality. Yet, it is valuable information. For instance, if your goal is merely to make a profit or retain your balance, especially if you are trying to make wagering requirements for a casino bonus offer, you should play low-variance games. If you are shooting for the moon and after an explosive win, high-variance games are the way to go.

Slots are, by their nature, unpredictable. So you can never really tell what will happen. There is certainly nothing wrong with looking for high RTP games, and the truth is in the numbers – they will pay more back over time. Yet, variance is arguably the more critical to understand before choosing a slot game. As with all casino games, the more you know about the game, the more it will benefit you, even if the outcome is always unknown.